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Brendon’s Away, Graham Steps In! With Brendon currently hiking the Te Araroa Trail until February, Velocity Founder and Co-Director Graham is stepping in as our go-to voice on your fixed versus floating mortgage strategy over the next three months. His eagle-eyed view of the market makes him the perfect guide through this fixed vs floating moment while Brendon is enjoying his time off. Here is Graham's take on the mortgage news this month.
By Graham Goodisson
The Official Cash Rate (OCR) has dropped by 0.25% to 2.25%. So, what does that mean for your mortgage? And where are those economic “green shoots” everyone keeps talking about?
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) has just met, released its announcement, and won’t meet again until February, following the great Kiwi tradition of taking the summer off.
This latest update was slightly different from previous ones. The RBNZ has signaled a "wait and see” approach before making any further cuts. There’s talk of a possible drop to 2.2% in March, but for now, it’s all about seeing how the summer economy performs.
Mortgage rates are shaped by three key factors:
Reserve Bank policy
Overseas market trends
The performance of the NZ economy
Banks have already priced this OCR reduction into their short-term fixed rates. Floating rates are expected to follow, Co-Operative has already made a move, setting an example for the Aussies.
It feels like we’re close—if not very close—to the bottom of this interest rate cycle in NZ. The RBNZ is waiting for these cuts to ripple through the economy, but many Kiwis remain cautious, believing things are still a bit “meh” economically.
I run an informal survey called the "Heavy G” survey (a nickname from friends—and the name my 13-year-old granddaughter has me saved as in her phone!). I ask business owners in Wellington and Tauranga how things are tracking.
Here’s what I’m hearing:
* Tauranga property tenanting: Easier
* Wellington property tenanting: Harder
* Dairy & kiwifruit farmers: Thriving
* Hospitality in Wellington: Struggling
In short, the economy is inconsistent. Some sectors are booming, others are hurting.
This is where things get interesting. The 2–4 year fixed mortgage rates in NZ are worth considering. There are no strong indicators that the economy will surge in 2026, forcing house prices up and interest rates higher. It looks like a slow, gradual build, when it eventually starts.
In our opinion (general commentary, not specific advice), rate decisions today are a mix of good and better. You’re unlikely to go too wrong with what’s on offer now. That said, fixing for five years? Probably not just yet.
Your brokers here at Velocity are happy to have these conversations with you, it’s what we do best! If you’d like tailored advice, Book a 15 -minute call with our team to find out how we can help you with your mortgage strategy.
“A good mortgage adviser doesn’t just help you get a loan. They help you build a strategy.”
Refixing over the holidays? Read our Home Loans Over the Holidays Guide here.
Want to know what to ask your adviser? Read our mortgage refix tips
Graham.
This article was written by Shona in conjunction with Graham and peer reviewed by our financial advisory team.
Graham Goodisson (FSP95428) is a Financial Adviser with Velocity Financial (FSP95466). No financial decision should be taken based on the information in this blog alone. Please see our disclosure statement on our website.
About Graham
Hi there, I’m Graham and I started Velocity Financial nearly 20 years ago. I had for many years been running youth development programmes for The Salvation Army and I liked the idea of continuing to help people thrive in other areas of their lives. It started with helping first home buyers, and I now work mostly with business owners. This is around planning, lending, and managing risk for them and their staff. I’m passionate about community and connecting those in need with opportunity. I’ve been very privileged to do this in my previous career, now in my business and for 20 years as a Trustee of the Te Aro Health Clinic. Our clinic delivers high quality health care for Wellington's most vulnerable and I'm very proud of the fact that Te Aro is now an integral part of Wellington City Health system. I work in New Zealand's two best cities, Tauranga and Wellington. In Tauranga I swim, bike and run (maybe YOGA if I'm feeling particularly aware!) and in Wellington I mostly seem to buy my adult children dinner and drinks.
The information shared in this post is meant to be general guide to support you on your journey. When making important decisions about your finances, we encourage you to seek independent financial advice first, tailored to your unique situation. As well as talking with a financial adviser, make sure you talk to your lawyer and accountant too – together they'll help you find the best solution for your specific situation. Our knowledgeable financial advisers are here to help. Check out our website for the details about our financial advisory services in our disclosures https://www.velocityfinancial.co.nz/disclosure-statement.