Property market watch: The election, winter and a downturn

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With the election and spring fast approaching, change is in the air … or is it? Graham shares what this all means for the property market.

On 23 September 2017, we’ll discover who we can blame for the next three years. It's also the end of winter, the start of daylight savings, and it’s been eight years since 23 September 2009. 

 

So, what do we make of all those things? Well, they all have some part to play in what’s going on with the housing market at the moment, and what’s going to happen in the near future.  

 

Apparently, during every election cycle, Wellingtonians put their plans to buy and sell on hold. It makes sense when you think that the largest Wellington employer, the Government, is in a period of sustained breath-holding while public servants wait to find out who their new boss is. The traditional thought that National makes for a smaller public service and Labour for a larger team obviously impacts public servant’s enthusiasm to change houses and so on.

 

That’s the election, but let’s combine that with winter and the slowdown that comes with sellers wanting to list in spring when there is more sun. And how about we garnish this discussion by adding in a property cycle that traditionally lasts eight years (and yes, it’s exactly eight years since 2009)—and we find ourselves in a perfect storm.   

 

But is any of this true? 

 

Well, on one hand, listings are low but, on the other hand, there are buyers. Well-presented properties continue to sell with good prices, but, at the same time, many buyers remain frustrated. So, much of it becomes a self-fulfilling cycle/prophecy. 

 

It’s certainly a great time to buy; the banks are a little hard work at the moment but most borrowers are being put off by the negative media spin as opposed to banks saying no. If you know someone who is waiting for the great property price slump tell them to wake up. It isn't about to happen. 

 

The lead up to 23 September is certainly going to be a great watch. 

 

Graham Goodisson is a Registered Financial Adviser with Velocity Financial. No investment decision should be taken based on the information in this blog alone. A disclosure statement is available free of charge upon request.